# Carbon Offtake Calculator with Delivery Risk | CRBN.credit

**URL:** https://crbn.credit/offtake-calculator  
**Summary:** Value a multi-year carbon credit offtake in today's money, with delivery rates measured from 2,320 Gold Standard projects. Free, no account.

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Free tool, no account

# Forward Offtake Calculator: What a carbon credit contract is worth after delivery risk

Enter the terms of a multi-year carbon credit offtake agreement and get its value in today's money once you allow for the developer delivering less than contracted. Delivery rates can come from the record of 2,320 registered Gold Standard projects: the median one had been issued 47% of its registered annual estimate.

Arithmetic on your inputs, worked out on the server. Nothing you enter is stored. Not a price recommendation.

## What carbon projects have actually delivered

Every registered Gold Standard project publishes an estimate of the credits it expects each year. Comparing that estimate with what registries have since issued for the same years is the most direct measure of delivery risk there is. Of 2,320 registered projects with a crediting period old enough to judge, the median had been issued **47%** of its estimate, a quarter had been issued 5% or less, and 22% had been issued nothing at all for the years covered. Only 15% delivered 90% or more.

Among projects that had issued at least once, the median rose to 61%. The gap between the two figures is the risk of a project that registers and then never issues, which is the risk a forward buyer carries at signing.

| Project type | Projects | Median delivered | Lower quartile | Nothing issued | 90% or more | Median, issuing projects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Efficiency - Domestic | 1,215 | 51% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 60% |
| Wind | 303 | 46% | 15% | 18% | 12% | 55% |
| Biogas - Heat | 192 | 86% | 31% | 18% | 31% | 86% |
| Solar Thermal - Electricity | 115 | 47% | 10% | 19% | 17% | 56% |
| Other | 113 | 30% | 0% | 33% | 13% | 53% |
| Small, Low - Impact Hydro | 99 | 5% | 0% | 47% | 4% | 42% |
| Biogas - Electricity | 77 | 20% | 0% | 36% | 10% | 43% |
| A/R | 49 | 0% | 0% | 61% | 18% | 48% |
| Solar Thermal - Heat | 25 | 49% | 23% | 8% | 8% | 68% |
| Biomass, or Liquid Biofuel - Electricity | 23 | 20% | 0% | 35% | 17% | 64% |
| Biomass, or Liquid Biofuel - Cogeneration | 21 | 11% | 1% | 19% | 5% | 24% |
| Biomass, or Liquid Biofuel - Heat | 21 | 34% | 4% | 24% | 14% | 50% |
| All registered projects | 2,320 | 47% | 5% | 22% | 15% | 61% |

Types with fewer than 20 projects are not shown. Delivered means credits issued for vintages from the crediting period start to 2023, as a share of the registered annual estimate over the same years.

Source: Gold Standard registry estimates and Berkeley Voluntary Registry Offsets Database issuance · Data as of June 2026

## How the calculator works

An offtake agreement commits a developer to deliver a volume of credits each year and a buyer to pay for them, usually at a fixed price. Because the credits do not exist yet, two things decide what the contract is worth to the buyer: when the money and the credits change hands, and how many credits actually arrive.

**Timing.** Each year's tonnes are treated as arriving on 31 December of that year. Every cash flow is discounted to today at your rate, so a dollar paid in ten years counts for less than a dollar paid now. Your discount rate is the return you require, or your cost of capital.

**Delivery.** The delivery rate is the share of the contracted volume you expect to receive. If you pay on delivery you pay only for tonnes that arrive and buy any shortfall at the replacement price. If you prepay, you pay for the whole volume today and still have to buy the shortfall.

**Break-even prepayment.** The prepayment per contracted tonne that costs the same, in present value, as paying the offered price only for the tonnes that arrive. It is the offered price multiplied by the present value of one contracted tonne's expected delivery. A developer asking for a prepayment above it is asking you to pay more than the on-delivery alternative.

**All-in cost.** Everything you pay, plus buying in the shortfall, divided by the present value of the contracted tonnes. It lets you compare a prepaid and an on-delivery offer on one number.

## How the delivery record is measured

1. **The estimate.** Gold Standard's public registry gives each project's estimated annual credits and its crediting period. Projects listed but not yet registered are left out, because nothing has been committed yet.
2. **The window.** From the start of the crediting period to its end, or to 2023, whichever is earlier. Later vintages are left out because verification and issuance take time, and counting them would understate delivery. The first and last years count only for the part inside the period, and a window under two years is not judged. 7 projects issued more than ten times their estimate and are left out, because an estimate that far off was entered wrongly.
3. **The issuance.** Credits issued for each vintage in the window, from Berkeley's Voluntary Registry Offsets Database, joined to the Gold Standard record through its registry identifiers.
4. **The ratio.** Issued divided by expected, project by project. The table reports the spread across projects, so one very large project cannot move it.

Limits worth knowing: the record covers Gold Standard only, because it is the registry that publishes estimates in a form that can be read in bulk; developers write their own estimates, and some are ambitious; a project can catch up on issuance after the cut-off; and credits issued under a programme of activities are counted where the registry records them. Treat the figures as a base rate for a project type, then look at the project itself.

## Questions

### What is a carbon credit offtake agreement?

A contract to buy credits from a project over several years, usually agreed before the credits exist. The buyer secures volume and often a fixed price; the developer gets revenue it can borrow against. The credits arrive only if the project performs and is verified, so the buyer carries delivery risk.

### How much do carbon projects actually deliver against their estimates?

Across 2,320 registered Gold Standard projects with a crediting period old enough to judge, the median project had been issued 47% of its registered annual estimate for the years covered, and 22% had been issued nothing for those years. Rates differ widely by project type; the table on this page lists them.

### What is a break-even prepayment price?

The most you could pay per contracted tonne at signing and be no worse off, in present value, than paying the offered price only for the tonnes actually delivered. It falls as your discount rate rises, as delivery dates move further out and as the expected delivery rate falls.

### Should I pay on delivery or prepay?

Paying on delivery leaves the developer carrying the delivery risk: you pay only for tonnes that arrive and buy any shortfall elsewhere. Prepaying funds the project but moves that risk to you. The calculator shows both, so you can see what a prepayment discount would need to be to compensate.

### Where do the delivery rates come from?

From Gold Standard's public registry, which records each project's estimated annual credits and crediting period, compared with the credits Berkeley's Voluntary Registry Offsets Database records as issued for the same vintages. Only registered projects are counted, and only vintages old enough to have been verified and issued.

### Does this tell me what price to pay?

No. It works out the arithmetic of the terms you enter. It does not value the credits, rate the project or recommend a price, and it is not investment advice.

### Can I use a specific country, project size or project?

Signed-in clients can narrow the delivery rate by country and project size, or apply one project's own delivery record, in the Offtake Analyzer inside the CRBN.credit terminal.

Related: check what is behind a project's numbers on its [Credit Passport](https://crbn.credit/credit-passport), see how much each registry holds in reserve against reversals on [carbon credit buffer pools](https://crbn.credit/buffer-pools), and follow what host governments have done about carbon credits in the [host country policy tracker](https://crbn.credit/host-country-risk). The [projects database](https://crbn.credit/projects) lists every project with its issuance history, and our study of [what registered projects actually delivered](https://crbn.credit/post/carbon-credit-delivery-risk-offtake-2026) walks through the delivery record in full.

General information. The calculator applies standard discounting to the figures you enter and is not a valuation, a rating or investment advice.