Price Forecast Models 2030
Institutional consensus data combining EY, McKinsey, and proprietary CRBN models.
| Asset | 2026 | 2028 (F) | 2030 (F) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU ETS (Compliance) | €78.50 | €110.00 | €145.00+ |
| Tech-Based Removal | $280 - $600 | $200 - $400 | $150 - $250 |
| Nature-Based Removal | $28 - $35 | $35 - $50 | $60 - $90 |
| Legacy Avoidance | $1 - $3 | $0 - $2 | $0 |
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2025-2030 Market Outlook: The Supply Squeeze
Our analysis indicates a severe supply deficit for high-integrity removal credits beginning in Q4 2026. As Article 6.4 operationalizes, we expect a rapid bifurcation where "junk" offsets become stranded assets, while verified removals (DAC, Biochar, Enhanced Weathering) command significant premiums. The convergence of Net Zero deadlines for Fortune 500 companies will create a "compliance cliff," driving prices parabolic for assets with verifiable permanence > 100 years.
Forecast Methodology FAQs
Why are 2030 forecasts so much higher?
Net Zero commitments from Fortune 500 companies all mature around 2030, creating a demand shock that current project pipelines cannot meet.
What is the 'Bifurcation'?
The market splitting into two distinct asset classes: cheap, low-quality avoidance credits (trending to $0) and high-quality, permanent removal credits (trending to $100+).
Does this model account for Article 6?
Yes. Our pricing model factors in the increased demand from sovereign nations purchasing ITMOs (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) under the Paris Agreement.
Why is Biochar projected to outperform Reforestation?
Biochar offers immediate, permanent sequestration (100+ years) with low reversal risk compared to forestry projects, which are vulnerable to wildfires and disease.
How do you calculate the Tech-Based Removal premium?
The premium is derived from the "Levelized Cost of Capture" (LCOC) for DAC and the scarcity of available credits relative to corporate demand for durable removal.