The global carbon market divides into compliance carbon markets (legally mandated) and the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) (discretionary purchases). In 2026, the combined value approaches $850 billion.
Compliance Carbon Markets Explained
Compliance markets operate under a legally enforced cap on total emissions. The regulating authority issues finite allowances equal to the cap. Entities exceeding their allocation must buy from others or face penalties.
Major Compliance Markets (2026)
Secondary market prices on 20 May 2026: EU ETS €75.40, UK ETS £51.13, California .65, China national ETS ¥81.57 per tonne. CORSIA has no allowance price: airlines meet it with eligible credits.
Voluntary Carbon Markets Explained
The VCM allows companies to purchase carbon credits beyond any legal obligation. Credits are verified by independent standards bodies (Verra, Gold Standard, ACR, CAR) and listed on private registries. The market is demand-driven by Net Zero commitments and ESG requirements.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Compliance: Legally mandated, government-issued allowances, hard cap, listed futures (ICE, EEX), standardised units, penalties for non-compliance, high liquidity, EU ETS ~€75/t.
Voluntary (VCM): Entirely discretionary, private project-generated credits, no system-wide cap, OTC/marketplace, heterogeneous quality, $3 to $200+/t, additionality is core requirement.
Price Discovery: Why Prices Differ
EU ETS EUAs trade at €75/t because supply is legally enforced and demand is mandatory. Voluntary prices range from $3 to $600+ due to fragmentation across standards, project types, and geographies. The ICVCM's CCP label is creating a quality premium tier.
Article 6: The Bridge Between Markets
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes a framework for international cooperation via ITMOs. Article 6.4 creates a UN-supervised crediting mechanism that could eventually bridge VCM and compliance frameworks.
Institutional Strategy
Hedge funds: EU ETS EUA futures on ICE Endex for liquid exposure; VCM for higher-beta alpha. Corporate desks: Compliance obligations dictate ETS; voluntary procurement for residual emissions. Project developers: Premium removal technologies command highest VCM prices.
The carbon price board shows each compliance market's published price with its date, the price outlook shows each compliance market's measured trend, and the projects database shows the registry record of voluntary projects. CRBN.credit does not sell credits or quote voluntary prices.